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OCG October 1st Banlist Prediction


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April 2016 Format

Blue-Eyes-27%

PKBA-22%

Odd-Eyes Performapal-12%

Monarch-8%

Qliphort-7%

Rouge-24%

 


May 2016 Format

Blue-Eyes-26%

PKBA-18%

Metalphosis-17%

D/D-12%

Odd-Eyes Performapal-9%

Rouge-18%



 

July/July 2016 Format

D/D/D -27%

ABC-24%

Blue-Eyes-23%

Metalphosis-13%

PKBA-9%

Rouge-4%

 


August 2016 Format

ABC-26%

Metalphosis-26%

D/D/D -15%

Blue-Eyes-11%

Hero-5%

Rouge-17%

 

Typically, KoJ has a good idea on what the banlist will be around mid-month before the list drop. The latest deck to be released usually doesn't get a hit. In this case, Dark Lords, despite averaging 18% in the late August showing, won't be hit this list. With that, the my ideas on how the October List will turn out. The list placements are meant to be realistic prediction of konami's decision, but if any bias shows out overtly, please point it out.


 

Banned 

 

Level Eater (M)

 

- I'm of the feeling no card needs to be banned this format. Unlike with the April list with obvious problem cards such as Monkeyboard and Life Equalize, no card really stands out to me as absolutely warping the format. In the same token, no real FTK exists this format.

 

The closest thing we can get to an FTK is the Dark Synchro deck. While it doesn't average more than 3-4% of the rouge, the plays are devastating due to a combination of DDR, Psyframe-Lord Omega, and Trishula, Dragon of the Ice Barrier. This deck opening the ideal (Gofu+a way to send level eater to the grave) can easy remove all 5 cards from your opponents hand and then end on Shooting Quasar Dragon. 

 

Level Eater's lack of an OPT clause makes it an awfully design card, but hindsight it 20/20. The reason I'm putting this card here (M for maybe) is because Konami usually bans one card even if there is a limit or such that could fix the problem otherwise. Level Eater will keep causing problems in the future if not with Dark Synchro. They could just add an OPT like they did with Catapult Turtle, but we'll have to see.

 

Limited

 

Majespecter Unicorn - Kirin

Majespecter Raccoon - Bunbuku

Blackwing - Gofu the Vague Shadow (M)

 

These three cards constitute the Metalphosis hits for the list. Cyber Stein has drastically dropped in usage with most decks not running it at all. With the release of Kaiju as an easy out to Exterio stein's potential only further drops. Last warrior is awful now, and will remain awful in the near future as long as things called S/T exist.

 

Kirin has the best chance of being banned outside of Level Eater, a quick-play Compulsory Evacuation Device that can't be targeted or destroyed that can also double as a good scale.

 

One re-deeming quality of Kirin is that it fails the bait-test. Most decks can summon one monster with over 2000 ATK and then have something else to remove Kirin. Thus Kirin is baitable. This is what separates it from say Royal Oppression or other interruption cards.

 

Another is that it targets. With Kozmo on the Horizon, and the vast majority of decks having access to some form of non-targeting monster eff negation, it's not needed to remove Kirin from the game, but merely to make it less consistent and recurring. The Wavering Eyes+Rektor side remains popular against the whole swath of pendulums decks and remains a good side. The problem used to be removing one Kirin (destroying/banishing after Rektor) wasn't enough since the opponent had access to 2 more. This would no longer be the case

 

Raccoon also needs to be limited because if it remains at 3 while Kirin at 1, then the opponent effectively has 4 copies of kirin instead of six. Still far to easy to get t1. Furthermore, Raccoon at the worse case it a wind lv 3 that can open Totem Bird and function as scales if needed. 

 

Gofu, I'm not entirely sure on. It's being run in Metals and Dark Synchro right now, but a limit to either Omega or Level-Eater would make it a non-issue in Dark Synchro. However it still opens up the Ultimaya-Crystal play in Metals with the greatest of ease. Limiting this card would just make Metalphosis have to rely on other, potentially lower standard cards (like Vortex Trooper). As the current top deck. It would not be surprising if Metalphosis got a stronger hit than the other meta decks.

 

Gofu is a +2 currently in Metals (tokens get used to make +'s). If it's limited and you have to rely on Sangan to search it, you don't get the tokens, it becomes a +0. So theoretically you could run 3 copies of Sangan and the limited copy of Gofu. On average, Gofu would be a +1/2. Significantly less potent than what it would be now

 

PSY-Framelord Omega

 

The simple way to think about this card (outside of a hit to Dark Synchro) is that most decks don't run more than one. Even decks like Infernoid only run 1. At multiple it only allows for degenerate hand-loops and the such. Omega has 3 good effect, that's what earns it a spot at 1.

 

 

The Melody of Awakening Dragon

Blue-Eyes Spirit Dragon

 

Like Melody, Spirit Dragon has 3 good effects. This card warps the Blue-Eyes Extra deck to be so synchrocentric. The fusion builds have seen zero play, exception being the blue-moon Twin Dragon cameo 

 

The ability to stop grave effect will be quite dangerous for Kozmo, a deck that Konami will try very hard to push with the Extra pack. All this cards limit would do is force Blue-Eyes to consider other extra-deck options (such as maybe a tech Dragon Mirror for example)

 

Melody on the other hand turns a discard into a 3K beater, and a way to Trade-In. A limit to this card makes Alternate Dragon less spontaneous, and forces Blue-Eyes to again invest in alternate play-styles. Gospel might be an reasonable alternate hit, but Melody is the card that aggressively gets the ball rolling in the Blue-Eyes deck. Now they'll be forced to consider running more Shrines/Ravines etc.

 

D/D Swirl Slime 

 

Swirl is a searchable Polymerization that has a grave effect to add even more field presence. It's existence is paramount for the majority of D/D/D lock-board plays. 

 

ABC-Dragon Buster

 

Doesn't at all kill the deck, but it makes the float less of a winmoar and more of a strategic decision. ABC is not Nomi, so cards like reborn can be played pretty easily to bolster the deck if needed. What a limit will do is stem the snow-ball aspect of the deck and potentially force usage of power-spells like Avarice/Soul Charge/Reborn to make up for what was realistically an advantage making cycle.

 

Pot of Cupidity

 

Staple in the format. Unlike avarice the cost can easily be paid t1. Unlike the lesser pots, there are no restriction after using this card. When considering decks like D/D or Metaphosis, they only needed one copy of their major cards to be able successful navigate the deck. It's closer to Pot of Greed than any other pot card realistically speaking. I strongly think that this card needs to be banned, and if it goes to 1 it won't create enough of an impact to get banned, but going to 1 to start seems realistic move from konami

 

Anti-Spell Fragrance

 

The player who starts and opens with this card has a huge advantage. With cards like cupidity being able to give an extra draw, ASF flips on the Standby-Phase are incredibally polarizing after one player has the ability to set up. It's especially harmful to decks that need to rely on spell searchers (like Terraforming into Kozmotown). The only realistic outs are having a MST/TT/Typhoon/or Galaxy Cyclone in hand. All in all, the card is quite polarizing for the format and shouldn't be as frequent of a occurrence as it is

 

 

Tribe-Infecting Virus

 

The card is slow, it's a worse dark hole, mermail is really the only deck that gains a lot from it. It was good in 2006, not so much anymore. A lot of decks float, and a lot of cards an negate a slow SS1 Monster effect. Also the typing on the card is terrible and makes it very difficult to search. It'll likely go the way of Thousand-Eyes Restrict. Into obscurity 

 

Magican of Faith

 

DMoC sees occasional play in Shaddolls, when shaddolls occasionally top. Magical Stone Excavation on the other hand see 0 play. And cards like Enlightenment Paladin might as well not exist. It makes little sense for a slower version of those cards to still be banned. Sub-note for Goyo Guardian. He's the stratos of OCG. They'll never bring him back. The artwork of Summon Gate pretty much confirms that he'll be banned for a while. Why? God knows, maybe I'm wrong and he comes back. But I'm not going to hold my breath this list.

 

 

El Shaddoll Construct (M)

 

This is a card I've been wanting back every list. And so have many other players. But Konami just doesn't seem to want to bring it back. Construct would move Shaddolls up a tier. From 3 to 2? Maybe? There are some OTK's associated with it I guess. Like send Trick Clown and make Trapeeze Magican, or send Wyvern and get Chaos Emperor Dragon or make plays in Felgrand/Blue Eyes...or overlay with DMoC to make Harbinger to stop DMoC from banishing itself....you know...nothing meta-breaking and terrible reasons to keep the card banned. There used to be the old theory that Construct made Veiler/Oger playable in the deck which gave a turn-off button to Winda (Winda->Lv6/Omega) or Prediction Princess Shaddolls would destroy the world. Non of that happened in TCG. I don't see why it would happen here. FREE MY WAIFU CONSTRUCT KONAMI! :'(

 

Semi-Limited:

 

Dragon's Ravine

Red-Eyes Darkness Metal Dragon

 

Ravine to 2 allows for Blue-Eyes to try a new play-style including Fusions and Felgrand Cards. Blue Eyes are the weakest of the top 4 meta decks. The goal is to shift them from a current play-style rather than to destroy them.

 

Darkness Metal is clunky and requires you to most likely give up your normal summon to use. Gustav Max otk and the such don't really carry much water these days if they ever did. Yes an obscure FTK might exist somewhere, but it's not common place enough to warrant this limit for the 4th year in a row

 


Dark Contract with the Gate

 

Contract, the second D/D hit, is searcher for the entire deck really that's an potentially and infinite + maker. The deck runs desires because it only needs one of either (slime or contract) to really explode. Restrictions on both, limit the consistency of the deck, and force players to run more card like Allure and Trade-In to achieve the same results as they could before. Limiting both cards utterly shafts the deck, but there's a chance it could happen if they want a complete meta nuke


 

El-Shaddoll Fusion

 

I can see this card happening if construct doesn't go to 1. El allows the deck to deal with harmful targeting effects like Kirin and the sort. Without construct it's pretty hard to OTK with this card. An extra fusion would just allow for more consistant Winda plays. This is the more likely outcome (over construct)

 

Inzektor Dragonfly

 

Destruction is becoming increasingly poor, and dragonfly targets on top of all that. This and REDMD are the last reminents from the 2012 September Meta nuke. Neither Chaos Dragons nor Inzkektors have the potential to compete anymore with the new meta. It's just following wind-up and Rabbit out of the banlist

 

Star Seraph Sovereignty

 

Current 3 Mat rank 4's are not that great. TCG has proven that 3 and 3 of stick and chair w/o shock or ptolo isn't that game breaking.

 

Speedroid Terrortop

 

Mild PKBA hit, restricts their t1 play little. PKBA has largely vanished from the meta and isn't really a major threat. Beatrice is V-Jump promo and thus safe. BA already got hammered last banlist.

 

Artifact Moralltach

 

With the advent of more non-destruction removal (such as cosmic cyclone) Morral has become a bit powercreeped. If anything it will help boost non-floodgate backrow. Not a bad thing to have in a format with Duster, 3 Twin Twister and the rest

 

Ring of Destruction

 

Targets, Destroys, using two would put you in the LP Red Zone. Also hard OPT so drawing two is terrible.

 

Unlimited

 

Charge of the Light Brigade

 

Lightsworn aren't good. 2008 is over

 

Gateway of the Six

 

It's been a year since Gateway went to 2. Sams need to fix their biggest problem of being able to summon multiple tuners. Gateway doesn't help with that. Kizan looping can create castels and direwolfs to remove threats. But there's not a whole lot outside of obscure and bad ftks a third gateway will do for the deck. Decks like D/D create better locks than Gateway sams can already. Also the advent of Kauju is imminent 

 

Sangan

 

Wasn't run at 2, won't be run at 3

 

Mezuki

 

Omega is limited, and even if it's not, a 3rd mezuki won't magically make Shiranui meta

 

Reborn Tengu

 

See Sangan mostly, might see some tech usage in metalphosis due to being able to generate free +'s, but the Plant Synch age is over

 

Thousand-Eyes Restrict

 

Sees mild play in Monarchs and Infernoids. It's usually run at 1 when Instant Fusion has a use  in the deck. But largely powercrept

 

Evigishki Gustkraken

 

 

Who?

 

 

Wall of Revealing Light

 

FTK is dead with Life Equalizer banned. Just a terrible card with no associated ftk nowdays.

 

Sinister Shadow Games

 

Shaddolls will only run 2. Third copy is better spent elsewhere

 

15 days

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  • 3 weeks later...

CsUjH8oVMAAhiXf.jpg

 

We'll find out soon enough if its legit, but I strongly say it's not

 

Highlights

 

Banned

Soul Charge

Vanity

Stein

Level Eater

 

Limited

Omega

terrortop

Swirly

Melody

Kirin

Raigeki

 

Why it's fake

 

No hit on cupidity or ASF

Blue Eyes hit the hardest untouched

Stein is even run in MF anymore

 

TER+Sagan still at 2

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Forbidden:

Cyber-Stein From Unlimited (FU)

Level Eater FU

Soul Charge FL

Vanity's Emptiness FL

 

Limited:

PSY-Framelord Omega FU

Speedroid Terrortop FU

D/D Swirl Slime FU

Majespecter Unicorn - Kirin FU

Raigeki FF

The Melody of Awakening Dragon FU

Terraforming FU

Chicken Game FU

Card of Demise FU

Dark Contract with the Gate FU

 

Semi-Limited:

Nekroz of Bionac FL

Inzektor Dragonfly FL

Emergency Teleport FL

 

Unlimited:

Reborn Tengu FS

Gateway of the Six FS

Charge of the Light Brigade FS

Ring of Destruction FL

 

Since I feel less tired

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This actually seems like it's going to be fairly healthy. With the hit to blue eyes and every demise variant of anything ever, I just might have to try an ocg list.

 

Keep in mind that the banlist he's linking hasn't been posted on or Org or Maxut, and I didn't see anything on Pojo when looking it up. No source given either. Take it with the grainiest of salt grains.

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