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Judgement of the Desert: A battle of wits


Hieracosphinx

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... A rock. is it a rock?

a lego?

a car?

a bird?

a plane?

 

this riddle has too many possible answers that could be seen as correct, and so you could change it at any time, there is no definitive answer and this riddle is unsolvable unless you yourself solves it.

 

No to all. Though a fair point you make. Perhaps a hint is in order...

 

It is three separate things that share a name. Two are objects, one is an action. 

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Probably not it, but I'm gonna shoot it out despite being in the gullet.

 

Despite it not fitting the hint, a trial actually fits.

 

You stand on Trial, you test out Trial products, and if you're not careful, you can hurt yourself in physical Trials.

Alas, it seems my hint was given in vain.

 

The answer was a deck. You stand on one, you play with one, and getting "decked" causes pain. 

 

A new riddle is here. Try your hardest. I like my meat on the leaner side. 

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Assuming every gunman thinks logically, Probably is most likely going to go for Definitely to ensure his survival, while Definitely would gun for Probably given his higher chance of being shot.

 

Let's assume Unlikely aims his shot at Definitely. If he succeeds and gets his 1/3 chance of killing Definitely, he now has to roll against a 1/3 chance of Probably jamming followed by a 1/3 chance of killing Probably - a 1/27 chance of this chain of events happening. It's a little more likely for Unlikely to jam after Probably does (2/27), but also far more likely for Probably to kill him (2/9). If Unlikely jams, Probably goes for Definitely. A 4/9 chance of Definitely dying by Probably's hands, though on the 2/9 chance that Probably fails, Definitely will surely kill Probably, leaving Unlikely with just one chance of winning, boiling down to a 2/27 chance. Should Probably actually shoot Definitely, the chance of Unlikely winning becomes 4/27 out of the chain of events, with jamming subsequently reducing his chances to negligible. So by aiming at Definitely, Unlikely gets a net of 7/27 chance of winning within the first 4 shots.

 

Now assume he aims at Probably without any change in the other gunman's decision to fire. Should he jam, the chances play out similarly. Should he successfully kill Probably in his first shot, he is guaranteed to die by Definitely. 2/9 chance of winning.

 

But what if Unlikely doesn't aim at either? By intentionally missing, he passes his turn and the events work out a little differently. Now it's a 2/3 chance of Definitely dying, followed by a net 2/9 chance of winning down this chain of events. If Probably jams (1/3), Definitely kills him, and Unlikely now has a net 1/9 chance of winning down this chain of events. Add them up and we actually get a 1/3 chance of winning, better than all the other possibilities.

 

Unlikely should aim at no-one to stand the best chance of winning. Now backed by calculations.

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I think to have the best possible chance of winning, Unlikely should not aim at either of the other two with his first shot (basically he should miss on purpose).

Assuming every gunman thinks logically, Probably is most likely going to go for Definitely to ensure his survival, while Definitely would gun for Probably given his higher chance of being shot.

 

Let's assume Unlikely aims his shot at Definitely. If he succeeds and gets his 1/3 chance of killing Definitely, he now has to roll against a 1/3 chance of Probably jamming followed by a 1/3 chance of killing Probably - a 1/27 chance of this chain of events happening. It's a little more likely for Unlikely to jam after Probably does (2/27), but also far more likely for Probably to kill him (2/9). If Unlikely jams, Probably goes for Definitely. A 4/9 chance of Definitely dying by Probably's hands, though on the 2/9 chance that Probably fails, Definitely will surely kill Probably, leaving Unlikely with just one chance of winning, boiling down to a 2/27 chance. Should Probably actually shoot Definitely, the chance of Unlikely winning becomes 4/27 out of the chain of events, with jamming subsequently reducing his chances to negligible. So by aiming at Definitely, Unlikely gets a net of 7/27 chance of winning within the first 4 shots.

 

Now assume he aims at Probably without any change in the other gunman's decision to fire. Should he jam, the chances play out similarly. Should he successfully kill Probably in his first shot, he is guaranteed to die by Definitely. 2/9 chance of winning.

 

But what if Unlikely doesn't aim at either? By intentionally missing, he passes his turn and the events work out a little differently. Now it's a 2/3 chance of Definitely dying, followed by a net 2/9 chance of winning down this chain of events. If Probably jams (1/3), Definitely kills him, and Unlikely now has a net 1/9 chance of winning down this chain of events. Add them up and we actually get a 1/3 chance of winning, better than all the other possibilities.

 

Unlikely should aim at no-one to stand the best chance of winning. Now backed by calculations.

Both are correct, and both shall receive my hint, since Trebuchet was wise enough to give reason and logic with the answer.

 

Now then, to all those concenered,

 

I apologize for my extended absence. There was business in the sand wastes that needed my attention. I have returned now, and shall he posting new conundrums for you soon.

 

Also of note, my text is not in its typical stylization because my normal means of contact has inexplicably become inactive. For the moment, this will have to do.

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If I get munched a third time, you're gonna run the severe risk of metal poisoning. 'raises her arms of metal as if showing the why behind that statement'

 

Anyhoo, something I noticed is that you don't mention when this happens...which means one thing to me.

 

The one driving had enough light to see the man in the road without headlights, either by the light of the sun or the light of the full moon, and therefore could move around the man without hitting him.

 

'whispers something before trying a teleportation spell to get out of here'

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considering  the multiple variables:

the man is in the middle of the road, so the car COULD just be on the side of the road, going past him.

the car might have been able to see the the man, (something he was wearing, moonlight, ETC).

he could have been walking through the road, and happened to be in the middle when the car turned, again, going right past him.

he was a ghost because what idiot walks down the middle of a road. (he could have died and  phased straight through the car)

it could be a mental road, not an actual road.

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I haven't received the hint yet. Did you forget to send it?

 

Forgotten, no. My reaction is merely delayed because my large paws cannot accurately press the glass of this small device. 

 

If I get munched a third time, you're gonna run the severe risk of metal poisoning. 'raises her arms of metal as if showing the why behind that statement'

 

Anyhoo, something I noticed is that you don't mention when this happens...which means one thing to me.

 

The one driving had enough light to see the man in the road without headlights, either by the light of the sun or the light of the full moon, and therefore could move around the man without hitting him.

 

'whispers something before trying a teleportation spell to get out of here'

considering  the multiple variables:

the man is in the middle of the road, so the car COULD just be on the side of the road, going past him.

the car might have been able to see the the man, (something he was wearing, moonlight, ETC).

he could have been walking through the road, and happened to be in the middle when the car turned, again, going right past him.

he was a ghost because what idiot walks down the middle of a road. (he could have died and  phased straight through the car)

it could be a mental road, not an actual road.

While I will not consume you for this, I will say this:

 

Indecisiveness is unflattering on anyone who is dim enough to present it. You must be precisein your answers, or else I shall have a feast. 

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