Jump to content

Photo

Media conglomerates and mergers


  • Please log in to reply
168 replies to this topic

#121
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

Couldn't that be solved by a joint bid from Disney and Fox, so Disney has some skin in the game?

 

Probably not. I don't believe that a sale of Sky News to Disney has been formalized at all; merely stated to be an acceptable condition for Fox's purchase of Sky, though such a sale could tie in with what you're suggesting. The potential for Disney to get involved has come up, though mostly as backing Fox in some fashion.

 

Regardless of the Sky News sale, I believe a joint bid is not possible. For example, before Comcast backed down from Fox, one solution that was suggested was that Disney and Comcast could split the Fox assets for sale. Bob Iger said that he could not do that because of the laws in place, and it would be considered a violation of his current deal with Fox. He would not altering the initial deal with Fox, but rather creating a second, contradictory deal. The agreement to divest Fox's RSNs - where Comcast was apparently seeking buyers - is a condition imposed on the initial deal.

 

The specific condition is that Disney must buy Sky directly only if they finish acquiring Fox before Fox acquires Sky. Disney is not under any obligation to buy Sky yet, but if Disney buys Fox first, then Disney would have to continue where Fox left off, and continue the bid for Sky. So a joint bid is not necessary at this time, but if they were to pursue one, it would be considered a separate bid from Fox's current bid for Sky.

 

Essentially, here's the breakdown of all the deals at the moment, considering Comcast is likely to give up on Fox:

- If Disney buys Fox, Fox must divest its regional sports networks to third parties.

- If Disney buys Fox before Fox buys Sky, then Disney must buy Sky in Fox's stead.

- If Fox buys Sky, they must divest Sky News to Disney.

- If Comcast buys Sky, there will be no conditions. The sale of Sky News is purely designed to separate Sky News from Fox, so there is no concern about Comcast acquiring Sky News.



#122
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.bloomber...its-bid-for-sky
 
Seems like we are moving towards the scenario where Disney gets Fox while Comcast gets Sky. Disney submitted a filing saying "Fox may elect not to increase the price offered by it in the Sky acquisition and any increase in the debt financing for the Sky acquisition would require Disney’s consent, which Disney may elect not to provide.”

 

That language highlights the risk here. A higher bid primarily means more debt, and according to Disney's estimates, they would barely get a 7% return rate on Sky with this deal by 2028. Given that the condition for Fox acquiring Sky is selling Sky News, which Disney would have to fund for fifteen years and cannot sell without regulatory consent, Sky would become far too much of a money sink for Disney to be worth it in the long run.

 

Fox votes on Disney in ten days. I have to wonder if Disney restricting Fox from purchasing Sky could put a damper on the vote.



#123
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://variety.com/...out-1202878103/

 

It's only been rumored, but now it's official: Comcast has dropped out of the bidding war for Fox so they can focus on acquiring Sky.

 

https://www.bloomber...fox-disney-vote

 

Next Friday is looking to be a big day. Aside from Fox's shareholders voting to move forward with the Disney deal, U.K. officials will determine the value of Sky for a minimum bid from Comcast and Fox. Given Disney's reticence in allowing Fox to continue bidding for Sky, this is more likely to be what Comcast was preparing for, and why they needed to drop their bid, while Fox may have to give up Sky.



#124
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.forbes.c...t/#4f7f901865a1

 

There are two more days until Fox votes on the Disney deal. Given the speculation over whether or not Disney may gave up, I think this offers some interesting analysis. I've seen a theory that Comcast wasn't looking to win Fox, and just force Disney to bid high enough for Fox to discourage Disney from pursuing Sky as well. The bidding war for Sky will probably wait until after the vote, though apparently Brian Roberts is willing to buy a majority stake and share ownership with Disney. So this could end with a joint ownership of Sky, but we'll have to wait and see.


  • Dad likes this

#125
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.nytimes....erger-vote.html

 

In a rather short meeting, Disney and Fox's shareholders have approved of the merger.

 

https://www.hollywoo...-brazil-1130263

 

Disney has also filed for regulatory approval in Brazil. While the deal is moving forward, they still need antitrust reviews. At the very least, this seems to lock out another bidding war for Fox that Comcast tried. I'll keep focusing on whatever happens with the Disney/Fox deal, and we also have the Sky bidding war to watch out for.


  • Dad likes this

#126
Nathanael D. Striker

Nathanael D. Striker

    My Friends Are My Power!

  • Twilight Wanderer
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,659 posts
    Last Visit Aug 20 2019 01:42 AM
  • Discord:Striker#1560
  • Alias:Striker
https://arstechnica....r-cable-merger/

New York revoked its approval of Charter's merger with Time Warner Cable after Charter apparently failed to live up to an agreement to secure New York's approval in 2016. It would only affect the merger within New York, but this should be interesting nonetheless.

eqa4wo.jpg


#127
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

I have to wonder if this would only be a problem in New York, or if we might see similar changes across other states. Being kicked out of New York is bound to be damaging. Since they have 60 days, I guess we'll have to see who they have to sell to.



#128
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.theguard...-thwart-comcast

 

It was already mandated that Fox and Comcast each have to offer at least 14 pounds per share for Sky, and while Comcast now has the advantage, UK takeover rules mandate that Fox must make a higher bid by Thursday.



#129
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://deadline.com...eth-1202441941/

 

AT&T just finished acquiring all of Otter Media, which will now be folded into WarnerMedia. Given that AT&T just got Time Warner two months ago, I'm concerned about how Otter Media is ending up lower on the totem pole. From a business perspective, Otter Media is a perfect fit to be integrated into WarnerMedia, but after the change from Time Warner to WarnerMedia as a part of AT&T, it's frustrating to then see WarnerMedia in turn become what new acquisitions will be folded into.

 

https://variety.com/...ons-1202890542/

 

This story is one I'm not entirely comfortable using for the purposes of this thread. Les Moonves is under pressure due to sexual assault allegations against him, and while that in and of itself is a problem, this is seen as an opportunity for Shari Redstone, who has been trying to oust Les Moonves to assert greater control over CBS, and in turn merge it with Viacom.


  • Dad likes this

#130
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.bloomber...ate-disney-deal

Fox has extended the deadline to reach a deal for Sky. While they haven't raised their bid, they now have until September 22 to do so. They only need to persuade 50% of Sky shareholders to approve of the takeover, but since Fox already owns a 39% stake anyway, they really only need to convince 11%. If an agreement isn't reached, the UK takeover panel can initiate a formal auction for Sky.

 

Bob Iger reiterated his interest in acquiring Sky, so it's unlikely that Disney is going to be walking away from this situation. There's still speculation that Disney/Fox and Comcast could split up Sky, but given how there was similar speculation for splitting up Fox, and that never came to pass, we'll probably see this be either all or nothing.



#131
Nathanael D. Striker

Nathanael D. Striker

    My Friends Are My Power!

  • Twilight Wanderer
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,659 posts
    Last Visit Aug 20 2019 01:42 AM
  • Discord:Striker#1560
  • Alias:Striker
https://www.washingt...m=.e4b6ac935f81

Looks like the Tribune/Sinclair merger is void. This should be interesting, especially as it prevents Sinclair from expanding.
  • Dad likes this

eqa4wo.jpg


#132
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.reuters....l-idUSKCN1L512A

 

T-Mobile is running a PR ploy, persuading smaller carriers who use their network to publicly support the Sprint/T-Mobile merger, as well as offering talking points to use in interviews. This is… pretty skeevy, but ultimately I don't see anything that could be held against them for regulatory approval.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...-its-stake.html

 

Hulu is estimated at losing $1.5B a year. While Hulu does not report numbers themselves, Comcast, Fox, and Disney each attributed losses to Hulu. This is especially important to keep track of because Disney is set to double their stake once they acquire Fox, and the best reason to keep Hulu around is mostly because there's already an established subscriber base, rather than trying to build one from the ground up.



#133
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

http://www2.philly.c...x-20180823.html

Only 0.21% of Sky stakeholders has accepted Comcast takeover offer. Comcast has set a new deadline for September 12, ten days before Fox's own deadline to raise their own bid for Sky. The low acceptance is likely due to anticipation for Fox's increased bid.

 

Doesn't seem like there's been any updates on federal approval for the Disney/Fox deal, but at the very least, next month should mark the end of the bidding war with Comcast.



#134
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://deadline.com...bcu-1202455013/

 

The DOJ has maintained that they'll be keeping an eye on Comcast's handling of programming and distribution, even though the consent decree over the NBCUniversal acquisition has expired.

 

https://deadline.com...ves-1202457668/

 

Looks like CBS's lawsuit against National Amusements will reach a settlement, mostly because CBS is not in a good position to mount a legal battle when there's already sexual harassment allegations against Les Moonves, who may be offered a $100M severance package to oust him from the company.



#135
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

Alright, this is going to be a bit difficult for me to mention, mostly because only part of it relates to this thread.

 

https://www.reuters....t-idUSKCN1LP0W8

 

This article best shows how two pieces of news have been announced.

 

1. Les Moonves is "resigning" from CBS following further sexual assault allegations.

2. CBS has reached a settlement in their suit against Shari Redstone.

 

I know this is not meant to a thread to discuss #MeToo, so I'll be brief and say that while Les Moonves does seem to have been forced out over the allegations, it seems that those concerns are really secondary to what CBS is more focused on. The hostility between Redstone and Moonves is something I've focused on throughout this thread, since he was the primary obstacle between the suspected plan for Shari Redstone to reunite CBS and Viacom, with the possibility of selling the merged company. With Moonves gone, I believe that merger scenario is more likely now.



#136
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.bloomber...one-day-auction

 

The race Sky could end this Saturday, since the U.K. Takeover Panel has determined that an auction must be held to wrap up Fox and Comcast's bidding war. The exact nature of the auction has yet to be determined, but a one-day auction is being considered. This is consistent with Sept. 22 being previously set as the deadline. After Fox and Comcast make their offers, Sky shareholders will have until October 6 to accept whichever offer they may prefer.



#137
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

https://www.cnbc.com...er-auction.html

 

Comcast has outbid Fox, offering $39B for Sky. Comcast and Fox both need to formally announce their revised offers by Monday. Sky's shareholders now have until October 11 (Since the deadline was extended even further) to accept either offer.



#138
Nathanael D. Striker

Nathanael D. Striker

    My Friends Are My Power!

  • Twilight Wanderer
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,659 posts
    Last Visit Aug 20 2019 01:42 AM
  • Discord:Striker#1560
  • Alias:Striker
Hmm, the 39% Fox has now becomes interesting. Wonder how much Comcast will pay for it.

eqa4wo.jpg


#139
Phantom Roxas

Phantom Roxas

    Legendary Member

  • Topic Starter
  • The Chariot
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 26,826 posts
    Last Visit 31 minutes ago

Speculation is that Fox may sell it for the same price that Comcast has bid for the majority of Sky. The other side of this is that Comcast may actually be willing to sell their stake in Hulu. Since Disney is going to acquire majority control of Hulu after the Fox merger, there's little incentive for Comcast to stay involve. So I could see a scenario where, while there could be two separate transactions, with Comcast selling their Hulu stake while Disney/Fox sells their Sky stake, it would essentially be trading Sky for Hulu. Plus, it may be in Disney's interests to sell off Sky to help cover the cost of acquiring Fox.

 

That said, despite winning the bid, Comcast's stock has actually gone down, while Disney's has gone up. Given that Disney's hire bid for Fox was seen as overpaying, while Comcast paid well above their own intended threshold to ensure that Disney could not match their bid, it's likely that Comcast may have been the one who overpaid for Sky.

 

Essentially, while it's possible that Fox's stake in Sky could be sold, Comcast acquiring Sky is not necessarily guaranteed, since they have to persuade at least 50% among the 61% that is up for grabs.



#140
Nathanael D. Striker

Nathanael D. Striker

    My Friends Are My Power!

  • Twilight Wanderer
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,659 posts
    Last Visit Aug 20 2019 01:42 AM
  • Discord:Striker#1560
  • Alias:Striker
And some of Sky's shareholders may go with Fox given they already have 39%, which could be seen as a safe bet. Though, I do see Sky for Hulu happening if the shareholders choose Comcast.

eqa4wo.jpg





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users