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[Debates] U.S. Black Community


27 replies to this topic

#21
mido9

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There's more white families on welfare than there are black families.

There's maybe 5 or 6 times more white families than black families


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#22
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There's maybe 5 or 6 times more white families than black families

 

The program was created for the poor.  To the poor it goes.


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#23
Darkrai

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The program was created for the poor.  To the poor it goes.

I think what Mido is saying is you need to consider proportions. An extreme example:

 

Say there was 99 white families and 1 black family. And of those, 9 white families were on welfare and the one black family was on welfare too. It's inaccurate to say that whites are more likely to be on welfare based on that sample. Only about 9% of White families would be on welfare in that case, compared to 100% of black families. Absolute numbers can be deceiving. 


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#24
Nathanael D. Striker

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I think what Mido is saying is you need to consider proportions. An extreme example:
 
Say there was 99 white families and 1 black family. And of those, 9 white families were on welfare and the one black family was on welfare too. It's inaccurate to say that whites are more likely to be on welfare based on that sample. Only about 9% of White families would be on welfare in that case, compared to 100% of black families. Absolute numbers can be deceiving.


Percentages can be deceiving too, you know. Without additional information about the population sizes for each group, I bet people would attempt to make sure direct comparison between groups that isn't justified by the entire data. Just some food for thought.

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#25
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I agree. The statistics are bad because the samples are bad because the system is bad.

So fix the system.

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#26
Darkrai

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Percentages can be deceiving too, you know. Without additional information about the population sizes for each group, I bet people would attempt to make sure direct comparison between groups that isn't justified by the entire data. Just some food for thought.

0826_census_race_fig1-2.jpg

 

IMO the black population has really suffered since Roe and the LBJ great society programs. But that's correlation not causation 


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#27
vla1ne

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IMO the black population has really suffered since Roe and the LBJ great society programs. But that's correlation not causation 

massive correlation does at least imply causation though. 


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#28
Darkrai

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massive correlation does at least imply causation though. 

Doesn't necessarily imply, but makes it a lot more pleasurable for sure.

 

It makes sense tentatively however. The black birth rate plummets, and welfare encourages less reliance on a family structure. We see a pretty significant discontinuity in the post treatment period (Roe/Welfare) which would indicate a significant treatment effect (Causation)


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