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2018 Midterm Elections


82 replies to this topic

#1
Nathanael D. Striker

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https://www.telegrap...d-trump-senate/

Consider this thread the HQ for tonight. Currently, we have the first batch of Exit Polls. 44% Approval Rating and 55% Disapproval Rating for Trump is among the released Exit Polls. Furthermore, 41% consider Healthcare as the top priority. Both suggest a good night for Democrats, but Exit Polls aren't always accurate (see 2016 Exit Polls).

In other news, polls are starting to close and results should start being released soon. Just keep the Election talk here, please.

#2
The Necromancer

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Why do people care about national polls? At all?

 

Trump might be -60 in a blue district and +2 in a swing one. 

 

That doesn't mean there will be a +58 D wave


Anyway I hate looking at these things, they make me so anxious 


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#3
Nathanael D. Striker

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Why do people care about national polls? At all?
 
Trump might be -60 in a blue district and +2 in a swing one. 
 
That doesn't mean there will be a +58 D wave
Anyway I hate looking at these things, they make me so anxious


Demographic/Ideological Polls, even National ones, can pinpoint how certain people are likely to vote. This can be applied to a certain area with a certain demographic to make an educated guess.

#4
Nathanael D. Striker

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Virginia 10 has flipped to Democrats, according to NBC.

#5
The Necromancer

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Virginia 10 has flipped to Democrats, according to NBC.

As someone who lived in VA-10 for most of my life. Not a shock. 

 

Full of pearl clutching neoliberals like my parents

 

"OH NOOOO TRUMP SAID PUSSY"

 

"He ended a war with Noko"

 

"But he's sooo mean"

 

Lost cause

 

VA-5 is a better bellweather

 

Also a literal Nazi is only losing VA by 5 with NOVA in ...so that's something. Fuck Corey stewart. The VA-GOP is such a mess. 


 

What really pisses me off, my current district, Trump won it by 4 after it voted for Obama by 13. And the GOP didn't even have the decency to contest it really >_>

 

They didn't even try. 


Demographic/Ideological Polls, even National ones, can pinpoint how certain people are likely to vote. This can be applied to a certain area with a certain demographic to make an educated guess.

No it doesn't, CA got a lot blue-er in 2016 as did MA and MD, that hid the right shift of the Midwestern states


GOP Governor might Win Mass with 70% of the vote in a tough year, GOP gov of Vermont might win by 20 after Bernie just won by 50

 

You northerners 


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#6
Nathanael D. Striker

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First, I said can with no comment on accuacy, so sit down. Second, analysts have been looking at Suburban voters as an indicator of how the elections will go. So, demographics can help.

EDIT: Moderate Republicans can do well in Democratic States. If Kate Brown loses to Knute Buelher here in Oregon, that'd be why. In theory, it promotes bipartisanship.

#7
The Necromancer

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First, I said can with no comment on accuacy, so sit down. Second, analysts have been looking at Suburban voters as an indicator of how the elections will go. So, demographics can help.

Oh for sure, in house elections that matters more tbh

 

But they're not a monolith imo

 

Like did you know college educated whites, swung hard to Trump outside of Metros?


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#8
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Oh for sure, in house elections that matters more tbh
 
But they're not a monolith imo
 
Like did you know college educated whites, swung hard to Trump outside of Metros?


Let me guess, they were also Suburban voters?

#9
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I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall.


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#10
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I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall.

I'm not

 

I think the GOP loses 16-30 seats, either an ungovernable GOP slim majority or the ungovernable Dem majority 


Let me guess, they were also Suburban voters?

Yup


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#11
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I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall.


I'm going to disagree. I expect a slim House majority for Democrats and for Republicans to hold onto the Senate. Given some Democrats have pleged to not give Pelosi the Speakership, that'll be interesting.

#12
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GOP picks up senate seat in Indiana


I'm going to disagree. I expect a slim House majority for Democrats and for Republicans to hold onto the Senate. Given some Democrats have pleged to not give Pelosi the Speakership, that'll be interesting.

GOP likely to increase senate majority 

 

Indiana called, GOP up 16

 

94% in fl, both gov and senate GOP holding 1+ pt leads

 

House is gonna come down to how much the GOP is bleeding in the Midwest


GOP governor hold Maryland


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#13
vla1ne

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I'm betting on a mistake on the level of the 2016 elections. a lot of variables are up in the air right now, and the initial ballots heavily favored republicans. It's possible that i'm wrong here, but i'm pretty sure the polls are skewed even remotely left in a lot of those close races only because the people who lean right can't be bothered to reply.


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#14
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I'm betting on a mistake on the level of the 2016 elections. a lot of variables are up in the air right now, and the initial ballots heavily favored republicans. It's possible that i'm wrong here, but i'm pretty sure the polls are skewed even remotely left in a lot of those close races only because the people who lean right can't be bothered to reply.

The democrats badly needed to win back people like you and me, who traditionally vote democrat but are disgusted now, they have instead decided that we're racist, rapist, sexist dirtbags

 

And that will hurt them in the senate if not the house too. 


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#15
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Tennessee was called to stay in Republican hands.

#16
vla1ne

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The democrats badly needed to win back people like you and me, who traditionally vote democrat but are disgusted now, they have instead decided that we're racist, rapist, sexist dirtbags
 
And that will hurt them in the senate if not the house too.

That's one of the variables, yes. In short, since the 2016 elections, the people who've sided with trump have been attacked figuratively and literally. This affects not only trump voters, but the people who watch and are disgusted by said actions. These are the kinds of people who, even if not all of them vote, those who do, will be harder to sway the further either side pushes into the extreme category. At the moment, both sides have their extremists, but it cannot be overlooked, how much of an impact the various actions and reactions over the past two years have changed up the game for both sides. The right has somewhat learned the rules of the game, and has applied them better than the left at the moment, which is why i believe the fight heavily favors them. But i understand that overall, not enough has changed to make things 100% favor either side. so i'm still likely to be wrong.


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#17
The Necromancer

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Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat

 

 

What the actual fuck


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#18
vla1ne

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Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat

 

 

What the actual fuck

Told you all those Californians coming over were gonna be a problem. Texas has taken in too many californians. The blue blood is stronger than it's ever been.


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#19
Nathanael D. Striker

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Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat
 
 
What the actual fuck


Still a couple counties that can swing both FL races Blue, so FL is still too close to call. As for Texas, *shrugs*
FL-27 and PA-5 are both Democrat gains. My prediction for the House and Senate are holding. NBC's thoughts are that this isn't much of a wave given all the competitive races they are seeing.

#20
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Still a couple counties that can swing both FL races Blue, so FL is still too close to call. As for Texas, *shrugs*
FL-27 and PA-5 are both Democrat gains. My prediction for the House and Senate are holding. NBC's thoughts are that this isn't much of a wave given all the competitive races they are seeing.

I was talking about FL senate and gov


You realize PA-05 got changed from a Trump+1 district to like a Clinton +30 district right?


Republican Vermont Governor Phil Scott will defeat Democratic challenger Christine Hallquist


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