Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/06/us-midterm-elections-2018-live-polls-open-donald-trump-senate/ Consider this thread the HQ for tonight. Currently, we have the first batch of Exit Polls. 44% Approval Rating and 55% Disapproval Rating for Trump is among the released Exit Polls. Furthermore, 41% consider Healthcare as the top priority. Both suggest a good night for Democrats, but Exit Polls aren't always accurate (see 2016 Exit Polls). In other news, polls are starting to close and results should start being released soon. Just keep the Election talk here, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Why do people care about national polls? At all? Trump might be -60 in a blue district and +2 in a swing one. That doesn't mean there will be a +58 D waveAnyway I hate looking at these things, they make me so anxious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Why do people care about national polls? At all? Trump might be -60 in a blue district and +2 in a swing one. That doesn't mean there will be a +58 D waveAnyway I hate looking at these things, they make me so anxious Demographic/Ideological Polls, even National ones, can pinpoint how certain people are likely to vote. This can be applied to a certain area with a certain demographic to make an educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Virginia 10 has flipped to Democrats, according to NBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Virginia 10 has flipped to Democrats, according to NBC.As someone who lived in VA-10 for most of my life. Not a shock. Full of pearl clutching neoliberals like my parents "OH NOOOO TRUMP SAID PUSSY" "He ended a war with Noko" "But he's sooo mean" Lost cause VA-5 is a better bellweather Also a literal Nazi is only losing VA by 5 with NOVA in ...so that's something. funk Corey stewart. The VA-GOP is such a mess. What really pisses me off, my current district, Trump won it by 4 after it voted for Obama by 13. And the GOP didn't even have the decency to contest it really >_> They didn't even try. Demographic/Ideological Polls, even National ones, can pinpoint how certain people are likely to vote. This can be applied to a certain area with a certain demographic to make an educated guess.No it doesn't, CA got a lot blue-er in 2016 as did MA and MD, that hid the right shift of the Midwestern statesGOP Governor might Win Mass with 70% of the vote in a tough year, GOP gov of Vermont might win by 20 after Bernie just won by 50 You northerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 First, I said can with no comment on accuacy, so sit down. Second, analysts have been looking at Suburban voters as an indicator of how the elections will go. So, demographics can help. EDIT: Moderate Republicans can do well in Democratic States. If Kate Brown loses to Knute Buelher here in Oregon, that'd be why. In theory, it promotes bipartisanship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 First, I said can with no comment on accuacy, so sit down. Second, analysts have been looking at Suburban voters as an indicator of how the elections will go. So, demographics can help.Oh for sure, in house elections that matters more tbh But they're not a monolith imo Like did you know college educated whites, swung hard to Trump outside of Metros? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Oh for sure, in house elections that matters more tbh But they're not a monolith imo Like did you know college educated whites, swung hard to Trump outside of Metros?Let me guess, they were also Suburban voters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall.I'm not I think the GOP loses 16-30 seats, either an ungovernable GOP slim majority or the ungovernable Dem majority Let me guess, they were also Suburban voters?Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm calling a sweep for republicans. They might lose one or two seats, but i'm betting on a large win overall.I'm going to disagree. I expect a slim House majority for Democrats and for Republicans to hold onto the Senate. Given some Democrats have pleged to not give Pelosi the Speakership, that'll be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 GOP picks up senate seat in IndianaI'm going to disagree. I expect a slim House majority for Democrats and for Republicans to hold onto the Senate. Given some Democrats have pleged to not give Pelosi the Speakership, that'll be interesting.GOP likely to increase senate majority Indiana called, GOP up 16 94% in fl, both gov and senate GOP holding 1+ pt leads House is gonna come down to how much the GOP is bleeding in the MidwestGOP governor hold Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm betting on a mistake on the level of the 2016 elections. a lot of variables are up in the air right now, and the initial ballots heavily favored republicans. It's possible that i'm wrong here, but i'm pretty sure the polls are skewed even remotely left in a lot of those close races only because the people who lean right can't be bothered to reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I'm betting on a mistake on the level of the 2016 elections. a lot of variables are up in the air right now, and the initial ballots heavily favored republicans. It's possible that i'm wrong here, but i'm pretty sure the polls are skewed even remotely left in a lot of those close races only because the people who lean right can't be bothered to reply.The democrats badly needed to win back people like you and me, who traditionally vote democrat but are disgusted now, they have instead decided that we're racist, rapist, sexist dirtbags And that will hurt them in the senate if not the house too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Tennessee was called to stay in Republican hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 The democrats badly needed to win back people like you and me, who traditionally vote democrat but are disgusted now, they have instead decided that we're racist, rapist, sexist dirtbags And that will hurt them in the senate if not the house too.That's one of the variables, yes. In short, since the 2016 elections, the people who've sided with trump have been attacked figuratively and literally. This affects not only trump voters, but the people who watch and are disgusted by said actions. These are the kinds of people who, even if not all of them vote, those who do, will be harder to sway the further either side pushes into the extreme category. At the moment, both sides have their extremists, but it cannot be overlooked, how much of an impact the various actions and reactions over the past two years have changed up the game for both sides. The right has somewhat learned the rules of the game, and has applied them better than the left at the moment, which is why i believe the fight heavily favors them. But i understand that overall, not enough has changed to make things 100% favor either side. so i'm still likely to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat What the actual funk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vla1ne Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat What the actual funkTold you all those Californians coming over were gonna be a problem. Texas has taken in too many californians. The blue blood is stronger than it's ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Wtf why is FL 98% to go GOP, but Texas in dead heat What the actual funkStill a couple counties that can swing both FL races Blue, so FL is still too close to call. As for Texas, *shrugs*FL-27 and PA-5 are both Democrat gains. My prediction for the House and Senate are holding. NBC's thoughts are that this isn't much of a wave given all the competitive races they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Still a couple counties that can swing both FL races Blue, so FL is still too close to call. As for Texas, *shrugs*FL-27 and PA-5 are both Democrat gains. My prediction for the House and Senate are holding. NBC's thoughts are that this isn't much of a wave given all the competitive races they are seeing.I was talking about FL senate and govYou realize PA-05 got changed from a Trump+1 district to like a Clinton +30 district right?Republican Vermont Governor Phil Scott will defeat Democratic challenger Christine Hallquist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I know, and there are two counties that can determine both races. I suggest you think a bit harder. I'm announcing important results as they come. Speaking of which, Florida's Amendment 4 passes, which gives Felons the right to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Kansas-3 flips to Democrats. NBC is predicting an 90% chance of a Democratic House Majority. EDIT: NJ-11, NY-11, and VA-2 go to Democrats. In Texas, Cruz leads by 1.4%. Also, Kansas Governorship flips. EDIT 2: North Dakota flips. NBC has called a Republican Senate guarantee with that. EDIT 3: NBC calls Texas in Cruz's favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Making a new post for this. NBC has called Republican Senate and Democratic House. Only uncertainty now are the margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryusei the Morning Star Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 I know, and there are two counties that can determine both races. I suggest you think a bit harder. I'm announcing important results as they come. Speaking of which, Florida's Amendment 4 passes, which gives Felons the right to vote.Broward doesn't have enough to pull those two GOP needs to get on those felons right away and do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathanael D. Striker Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Minnesota-3 flips to Democrats. NBC has 229-206 with a +/-10 margin ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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