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The NFC East flat blew up at the trade deadline with each team making significant moves:The general consensus is Dallas Dez Bryant Jerseys 2019 , Philadelphia and Washington all improved their 2018 chances, but long-term events will decide the value of these trades. ESPN named each a trade dealine “winner” (with the Giants a loser): Based upon Twitter and the comments on our own BTB site many Cowboys fans don’t share the same optimism regarding the acquisition of Pro Bowl wide-out Amari Cooper.After, all, they’ve seen this play before and past outcomes have left many with legitimate concerns. There’s also, however, legitimate reason for optimism. A look at how the Cowboys’ passing game has performed in 2018 - and how Cooper could fit in - shows there was logic in the front-office’s decision-making. The following bubble chart of the team’s top receiving targets shows three data points:Horizontal axis shows receiving yards. Vertical axis shows yards per attempt.Bubble size indicates number of targets.In general, this is an ugly chart. Only Beasley and “others” occupy the area you want to occupy. The others either suffer from a poor yards per target number (one of the best measurements of a passing attack) or their receiving yards are minuscule. When your second most prolific receiver in terms of yards gained is on pace for less than 500 yards - and your top receiver is pace for 800 yards - there are major problems. That’s where Cooper could - and should - come in. Let’s add his 2018 numbers to the chart:This looks a little better. You don’t have to squint too hard to see the makings of a legitimate NFL receiving corps: Beasley, Cooper, Gallup, Swaim. I’ll be surprised if this doesn’t become the consistent group in terms of snaps and targets. This makes sense if you look at targets (volume) and yards per attempt (efficiency):This clearly shows how Beasley, Swaim and Gallup have been productive and the rest of the team not so much. These problems also show up:Elliott is getting far too many targets. The schemed throws to Elliott are fine (think the screens that have proven deadly and the late game catch against the Lions). However, Elliott is frequently targeted as a last-ditch outlet on third-and-long, getting the ball near the line of scrimmage and asked to make 8-15 yards. These are killing his efficiency numbers. Allen Hurns has been a complete bust and shouldn’t be on the field much moving forward. The “others” benefit from a few big plays by Tavon Auston and Rico Gathers but there’s been no consistency from any of the individual players. Let’s look at the same chart, with Cooper added:Here we see how Cooper slots in well with the Cowboys’ other productive targets. Cooper has been averaging less than five targets per game with the Raiders. Considering his elite route-running skills, Cooper is likely to average more with the Cowboys. Those targets should come at the expense of Hurns and Elliott. Specifically, Hurns isn’t going to be on the field. But more importantly, the expectation is that Cooper will provide the open receiver on those long third down plays where Dak Prescott is currently dropping the ball off to Elliott. If that happens, Elliott’s targets should decline and his efficiency should improve. Again, it’s not hard to envision the Beasley/Cooper/Gallup/Swaim/Elliott group being much White Tony Romo Jersey , much more effective on third downs. This would be a huge improvement as Dallas currently ranks 29th in the NFL with a third-down conversion rate of only 31.2%. This is a huge drop from 2016 when the team ranked ninth at 43%. If Cooper can help them team convert one more third down out of every ten attempts, suddenly the team is back in that top ten level. That doesn’t seem an outrageous expectation. Let’s put all this in perspective by looking at Dak Prescott’s numbers.Here’s his performance for 2016, 2017 and 2018 compared to the NFL’s 2018 average:One thing that’s hard to see is that Dak’s bubbles are just smaller than the NFL average. In 2018, Dak is averaging 29 attempts per game, seven less than the NFL average (36). At seven yards per attempt that means we would expect Dak to be throwing for 50 yards less per game than the NFL average. And that’s right where Dak stands (208 yards per game versus 253 yards per game). That’s because Dak’s yards per attempt is almost identical to the league average (6.8 versus 7.0). You can also see Dak’s 2018 is about the same as his 2017, but significantly worse than his 2016. Again, you don’t have to squint too hard to imagine Dak’s 2018 number migrating towards that 2016 mark with the addition of Cooper. Convert a few more first downs per game to keep a few drives alive and much of what ails this Cowboys offense would be fixed. That’s the hope anyway. It may not prove successful. But when you look at all the various parts and where there’s room for improvement, Cooper sure seems like a well-thought out solution to the Cowboys’ offensive problems.It only took the Falcons @ Eagles game to show why all the Cowboys predictions are probably wrong Boo. Hiss. This was the NFL opener we have been waiting for since February? The slopfest between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles? This game that featured a flurry of flags, one quarterback who completed 19 passes for only 117 yards, a receiver on the other team with 169 yards all by himself, but his team only got in the end zone once, despite multiple trips to the red zone? The Falcons lost the game by six points, despite having seven plays from inside the Eagles’ 20-yard line at the end, including a penalty that gave them one last shot at the end zone - a target that offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Matt Ryan were unable to find all night long. It was just terrible football on the part of both teams.So why is a Dallas Cowboys blog opening with this? Especially since the hated Eagles got away with a win in a game they did not come close to playing well enough to win, which may come back to haunt the Cowboys? Well, because of just what it shows about preseason predictions. Far more writers, bloggers, and fans had the Eagles and Falcons selected to make it to the playoffs than favored the Cowboys. And while we still have to see how Dallas shows up against the Carolina Panthers, there was nothing about that game Thursday night that says either of those teams looks like a lock for the postseason. And you have to feel a bit better about the Cowboys’ chances against both teams this year.Obviously Terrance Williams Jersey 2019 , it’s just one game, and either, or both, the Eagles and Falcons can get things straightened out. For our beloved and treasured fellow NFC East member from Philly, they have the hope that Carson Wentz will soon return to replace Nick Foles, who looked like that run to the Lombardi never happened. But there were a lot of other issues for them, while the Falcons just looked lost. (The officiating, which somehow managed to have another “Did he catch it?” moment despite all the work on the rule, was also monumentally atrocious, but that is a different ball of worms, as they say.) It was a bit serendipitous that the morning after that almost unwatchable game I ran across Bill Bidwell’s article that states a case for all 32 teams to win the Super Bowl. He starts out with something every fan should take to heart.Exactly. There are very few writers out there who pay enough attention to all 32 teams to have even a general idea of what the teams have in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Preseason games tell us just slightly more than squat as teams limit the exposure of their starters. Writers, analysts, and bloggers that cover one team have a much better idea of things - for their team. They still are largely reduced to guesswork and extrapolation about the rest of the league.(Just for reference, Barnwell has the Eagles as the third most likely team to go to the Super Bowl this year, with Atlanta eighth and the Cowboys sixteenth - or just where Philly was a year ago.)And that basically is where we are. The first week, everything is mostly based on what teams did last season (recency bias), combined with what is thought about free agent losses and signings, draft picks, and injuries. But until we play things out White Terrance Williams Jersey , it is still all just a slightly quantified wild you-know-what guess. It will take more than one game for the real picture to emerge, as teams work off that rust.By the way, as far as the terrible play we saw on TNF, count me as a skeptic about placing the blame on the lack of preseason work by the starters. That can affect things, but what we saw looked a lot more like two teams that were just not prepared for the game. I think that was more about coaching than anything. It would seem that NFL coaching staffs would realize that there is a big advantage in week one if you come in better prepared and conditioned than the other team. Both the Falcons and Eagles looked woefully underprepared. Now, we have no idea if the Cowboys look any better. But if they do, then you need to give credit to Jason Garrett and his staff - because you know fingers will be pointed if the team doesn’t look ready.Back to the original topic of this, one of the reasons that the Cowboys could be right in the thick of the playoff race is that there are so many unknowns. The receiving corps in particular, combined with the expected changes to the offensive plan we have heard so much about, are generally assumed to be a failure by those who predict Dallas will not do anything this season. More than one writer or analyst has labeled them the “worst in the NFL”. But here is the silver lining to that. If they manage to not be at the bottom of the league and can just get to the middle of the pack - like around 16th or so - that will outperform expectations. And joined with the likely high-output running game of a motivated Ezekiel Elliott and an emerging defense, that should be good enough to win a bunch of games. All that passing game has to be is credible enough to loosen up the opposing defenses so Zeke is not facing stacked boxes. It can’t be totally impotent, obviously. But it hardly has to be top five or ten to get the job done.Remember, those negative predictions about the passing game are generally based on people who read the names and maybe look up their past stats. If you have been paying attention to the beat writers who cover Dallas full time, you get a very different vibe. These receivers have been working hard, absorbing the lessons of Sanjay Lal, and look a good bit better than the “worst in the league”. It all has to show up on the field, and the first time we get to see that is upon us. We’ll start to find out in Carolina how that passing game works, as well as see if this season really is the Vengeance of Zeke and the Rise of the Hot Boyz. But be assured of one thing: There are teams that outperform and underperform their preseason predictions every season. The odds are that the Cowboys will be in one category or the other. Let’s just hope it is the good one. Custom Washington Redskins Jerseys